Assessing the Potential of Upcoming Satellite Altimeter Missions in Operational Flood Forecasting Systems

Abstract

This study investigates the potential of observations with improved frequency and latency time of upcoming altimetry missions on the accuracy of flood forecasting and early warnings. To achieve this, we assessed the skill of the forecasts of a distributed hydrological model by assimilating different historical discharge time frequencies and latencies in a framework that mimics an operational forecast system, using the European Ensemble Forecasting system as the forcing. Numerical experiments were performed in 22 sub-basins of the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin. Forecast skills were evaluated in terms of the Relative Operational Characteristics (ROC) as a function of the drainage area and the forecasts’ lead time. The results showed that increasing the frequency of data collection and reducing the latency time (especially 1 d update and low latency) had a significant impact on steep headwater sub-basins, where floods are usually more destructive. In larger basins, although the increased frequency of data collection improved the accuracy of the forecasts, the potential benefits were limited to the earlier lead times.

Keywords

• satellite mission
• update
• latency
• initial condition
• hydrological model
• floods