Nested Cross-Validation for HBV Conceptual Rainfall–Runoff Model Spatial Stability Analysis in a Semi-Arid Context

Abstract

Accurate and efficient streamflow simulations are necessary for sustainable water management and conservation in arid and semi-arid contexts. Conceptual hydrological models often underperform in these catchments due to the high climatic variability and data scarcity, leading to unstable parameters and biased results. This study evaluates the stability of the HBV model across seven sub-catchments of the Oum Er Rabia river basin (OERB), focusing on the HBV model regionalization process and the effectiveness of Earth Observation data in enhancing predictive capability. Therefore, we developed a nested cross-validation framework for spatiotemporal stability assessment, using optimal parameters from a donor-single-site calibration (DSSC) to inform target-multi-site calibration (TMSC). The results show that the HBV model remains spatially transferable from one basin to another with moderate to high performances (KGE (0.1~0.9 NSE (0.5~0.8)). Furthermore, calibration using KGE improves model stability over NSE. Some parameter sets exhibit spatial instability, but inter-annual parameter behavior remains stable, indicating potential climate change impacts. Model performance declines over time (18–124%) with increasing dryness. As a conclusion, this study presents a framework for analyzing parameter stability in hydrological models and highlights the need for more research on spatial and temporal factors affecting hydrological response variability.

Keywords

• hydrological modeling
• stability
• HBV model
• nested cross-validation
• Oum Er Rabia