Modeling of population dynamics of the protected lichen Lobaria pulmonaria (L.) Hoffm. in the Caucasus

Abstract

Reduction of biological diversity of lichens, reduction of the distribution of rare species and their disappearance due to habitat disturbance are significant problems in the Caucasus. The aim was to study the main patterns of distribution of the rare lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria (L.) Hoffm. and included identification the main abiotic factors affecting the distribution of the species in region. We modeled the current habitats of Lobaria pulmonaria in the Caucasus by using the Maxent method (Maximum entropy modelling). The most suitable for distribution of the lichen were the wettest areas of the southern macroslope of the Greater Caucasus. The center of the predicted range of L. pulmonaria was currently located on the Black Sea coast, in the mid-mountain areas of Krasnodar region, Georgia and Abkhazia. The minimum probability of finding the species predicted in relatively arid areas with a more continental climate in the Central and, especially, Eastern Caucasus. Temperature and orographic (Topographical Ruggedness Index, topographical humidity Index) factors are also important in the distribution of the studied species.