An Introduction to the Morphological Delphi Method for Design: A Tool for Future-Oriented Design Research

Abstract

Projecting analytical concepts is a difficult, though established process in innovation management. Designers face methodological obstacles, however, when engaging with a future system with rapidly changing factors. First, the system’s users do not yet exist. Second, continuing changes in key factors and their interactions make conceiving of relationships and delivering synthesizable data impossible. The rational core for making projections suffers from a lack of substantiation. Both morphological analysis and the Delphi method are established tools in strategic foresight. We suggest that a morphology-based Delphi method supports the process of projecting future outcomes in innovative, complex projects. In addition, each tool compensates for the other’s theoretical and functional deficits by illustrating transparent, value-based arguments in a modifiable, iterative manner. Keywords: Morphological analysis, Systemic design, Future-oriented design, Delphi method, Scenario development, Strategic foresight