Comparing established practice for short-term forecasts and emerging use of climate projections to identify opportunities for climate services in Australian agriculture

Abstract

The use of climate services in agriculture to improve both tactical and strategic management decisions on farm is an area of increasing societal interest and technological development in Australia, as climate change increases climate variability and risk. Yet the focus of most uses of climate services remains on weather and seasonal forecasts and tactical farm responses, with longer term climate projections less often empirically examined. In this paper we analyse 25 interviews with farmers in Australia and use social practice theory to compare farm risk management decisions utilising short-term weather forecasting and longer-term climate projection planning. We identify different elements of climate risk management as a social practice, looking particularly at materials (objects and tools), meanings (beliefs and thinking) and competencies (skills and knowledge) associated with climate services. We find that there are significant differences in how decisions are made using different temporal data scales and furthermore, that there are large gaps in the materials, meaning and competencies for the use of longer-term climate projections. This analysis allows us to clearly identify opportunities for the agricultural sector in Australia, and globally, to better support decisions in both weather and climate timeframes by treating these as distinctly different capabilities and addressing the different elements of social practice outlined here.

Keywords

• Australia
• Weather and seasonal forecasts
• Climate projections
• Social practice theory
• Agriculture
• Climate services