The Study of Drought in Future Climate Scenarios in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region

Gengmin Jiang; Xiaobo Gu; Dongsheng Zhao; Jun Xu; Changkun Yang; Siyu Wang; Yuying Li; Bai-Lian Li

doi:10.3390/w13233474

Water (Dec 2021)

The Study of Drought in Future Climate Scenarios in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region

Gengmin Jiang,
Xiaobo Gu,
Dongsheng Zhao,
Jun Xu,
Changkun Yang,
Siyu Wang,
Yuying Li,
Bai-Lian Li

Affiliations

Gengmin Jiang: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, China
Xiaobo Gu: College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Xianyang 712100, China
Dongsheng Zhao: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, China
Jun Xu: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, China
Changkun Yang: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, China
Siyu Wang: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, China
Yuying Li: International Joint Laboratory of Watershed Ecological Security for Water Source Region of Middle Route Project of South-North Water Diversion in Henan Province, College of Water Resource and Environment Engineering, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, China
Bai-Lian Li: International Joint Laboratory of Watershed Ecological Security for Water Source Region of Middle Route Project of South-North Water Diversion in Henan Province, College of Water Resource and Environment Engineering, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, China

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13233474
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 13, no. 23
p. 3474

Abstract

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In the context of global warming, agricultural production and social and economic development are significantly affected by drought. The future change of climate conditions is uncertain; thus, it is of great importance to clarify the aspects of drought in order to define local and regional drought adaptation strategies. In this study, the meteorological data from 1976 to 2005 was used as a historical reference, and nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), downscaling to meteorological stations from 2039 to 2089, were used as future climate data. Based on Penman–Monteith, the reference crop Evapotranspiration (ET0) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) of the reference crop in three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, under future climate conditions, were calculated. A non-parameter Mann–Kendall trend test was performed on temperature, precipitation, ET0, and SPEI to analyze the drought spatiotemporal distribution traits under upcoming climate scenarios. The results showed that, under future climate conditions, SPEI values in most areas of the Huang-Huai-Hai region would continuously increase year by year, and drought would be alleviated to some extent at the same pace. However, with the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the emission scenarios, SPEI values continued to decline. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of severe drought was large. To sum up, in the future climate scenario, the degree of drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai region will be alleviated to some extent with the increase of rainfall, but with the increase of greenhouse gas concentration, the degree of drought will be further intensified, posing a huge challenge to agricultural water use in the region. This study provides a theoretical foundation for alleviating drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai region in future climate scenarios.

Published in Water

ISSN: 2073-4441 (Online)
Publisher: MDPI AG
Country of publisher: Switzerland
LCC subjects: Technology: Hydraulic engineering; Technology: Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering: Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes
Website: http://www.mdpi.com/journal/water/

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