Assessment of the Renewable Energy Consumption Capacity of Power Systems Considering the Uncertainty of Renewables and Symmetry of Active Power

Abstract

The rapid growth of renewable energy presents significant challenges for power grid operation, making the efficient integration of renewable energy crucial. This paper proposes a method to evaluate the power system’s capacity to accommodate renewable energy based on the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) from a symmetry perspective, underscoring the symmetrical interplay between load and renewable energy sources and highlighting the balance necessary for enhancing grid stability. First, a 10th-order GMM is identified as the optimal model for analyzing power system load and wind power data, balancing accuracy with computational efficiency. The Metropolis–Hastings (M-H) algorithm is used to generate sample spaces, which are integrated into power flow calculations to determine the maximum renewable energy integration capacity while ensuring system stability. Short-circuit ratio calculations and N-1 fault simulations validate system robustness under high renewable energy integration. The consistency between the results from the M-H algorithm, Gibbs sampling, and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) confirms the approach’s accuracy.

Keywords

• symmetry in renewable energy integration
• active power symmetry
• probabilistic assessment
• Gaussian mixture models
• Metropolis–Hastings algorithm