Still Aquamarine: China Factor and the 2020 Election Revisited

Abstract

The DPP's victory over the KMT in Taiwan's 2020 elections has been interpreted as a triumph for anti-China sentiment. However, the rise of political outsiders and their influence on voting behavior in this election were overlooked and underestimated. In this article, we examined different sources of data and found that supporters of these political outsiders mentioned sovereignty and cross-Strait issues less than the incumbent Tsai Ing-wen. However, when faced with the choice between Tsai and challenger Han Kuo-yu, voters who were concerned about governance chose Tsai, contributing to her winning a record number of votes. This article suggests that economic and governance issues had a considerable role in the election's result and will probably be the main focus of the 2024 presidential election. With the potential for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait increasing, anti-China sentiment is unlikely to be the deciding factor this time around.