Development of a Stock Price Prediction Framework for Intelligent Media and Technical Analysis

Abstract

Equity traders are always looking for tools that will help them maximise returns and minimise risk, be it fundamental or technical analysis techniques. This research integrates tools used by equity traders and uses them together with machine learning and deep learning techniques. The presented work introduces a South African-based sentiment classifier to extract sentiment from new headlines and tweets. The experimental work uses four machine learning models for fundamental analysis and six long short-term memory model architectures, including a developed encoder-decoder long short-term memory model for technical analysis. Data used in the experiments is mined and collected from news sites, tweets from Twitter and Yahoo Finance. The results from 2 experiments show an accuracy of 96% in predicting one of the major telecommunication companies listed on the JSE closing price movement while using the linear discriminant analysis model and an RMSE of 0.023 in predicting a significant telecommunication company closing price using encoder-decoder long short-term memory. These findings reveal that the sentiment feature contains an essential fundamental value, and technical indicators also help move closer to predicting the closing price.

Keywords

• sentiment analysis
• LSTM
• machine learning
• deep learning
• stock market
• forecasting