Türkiye’de İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi Geçerliliğinin Yeniden İncelenmesi(Re-examining Validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis in Turkey)

Abstract

Although the export-led growth hypothesis is one of the most tested issues in the economics literature, it is observed that different results are obtained. However, many studies for Turkey in which the relevant hypothesis is tested, but the results obtained are just as complex. In addition, very few empirical studies on Turkey have taken into account the existence of structural breaks. In this context, this study investigates the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis in the Turkish economy using the 1990-2019 period data and Maki cointegration, which takes into account structural breaks, and Toda and Yamamoto causality methods, which offer more consistent results. According to the results, it is concluded that the economic growth, export, import, capital, and labor series are cointegrated and that the economic growth-led export hypothesis, which implies unidirectional causality from economic growth to exports, is valid. In other words, the export-led growth hypothesis is not valid for the Turkish economy in the relevant period.

Keywords

• export-led growth hypothesis
• maki cointegration
• toda-yamamoto causality
• turkey