Simulation of the Consequences of the Ammonium Nitrate Explosion Following the Truck Accident Next to Mihăileşti Village (Romania) in 2004

Abstract

Model-based evaluation of major accident consequences and effects occurring during the transport of dangerous substances presents a great interest, because it allows derivation of relevant conclusions on the cause-effect close relationship. Such a numerical (in-silico) analysis helps to improve safety regulations for the transport of hazardous substances aimed at preventing dramatic accidents causing many deaths, injuries, and structural damage. By using the standard TNT equivalency math model, coupled with the Probit functions technique, the consequences and effects of an accidental blast have been estimated.1,2 The approached case study here refers to the accidental explosion of a truck while transporting 20 t of ammonium nitrate (AN) in the proximity of Mihăileşti village (Romania) on 24 May 2004. The model-based simulated accident consequences and effects match the data taken on the spot after the accident. Multiple simulations lead to deriving relevant conclusions of practiced value for improving the transport safety of hazardous substances.

Keywords

• mihăileşti accident consequences
• ammonium nitrate
• tnt equivalency model
• estimated damage
• probit functions
• fatalities percentage