Clinical Features and a Prediction Model for Early Prediction of Composite Outcome in Chlamydia psittaci Pneumonia: A Multi-Centre Retrospective Study in China

Abstract

Xue Yang,1,* Man Wu,2,* Tangzhiming Li,3,* Jie Yu,4 Tian Fu,5 Guoping Li,6 Huanwen Xiong,7 Gang Liao,8 Sensen Zhang,9 Shaofeng Li,10 Zhonghua Zeng,11 Chun Chen,12 Benhui Liang,13,14 Zhiguo Zhou,15 Ming Lu16 1Shenzhen Institute of Respiratory Diseases, Shenzhen People’s Hospital (The Second Clinical Medical College, Jinan University; The First Affiliated Hospital, Southern University of Science and Technology), Shenzhen, Guangdong, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center Affiliated to Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Cardiology, Shenzhen Cardiovascular Minimally Invasive Medical Engineering Technology Research and Development Center, Shenzhen People’s Hospital (The Second Clinical Medical College, The First Affiliated Hospital, Southern University of Science and Technology, Jinan University), Shenzhen, Guangdong, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Jiangxi Provincial People’s Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang Medical College, Nanchang, Jiangxi, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Jining No 1. People’s Hospital, Jining, Shandong, People’s Republic of China; 6Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Tongde Hospital of Zhejiang Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 7Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Gaoxin Branch of The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, People’s Republic of China; 8Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Shenzhen Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People’s Republic of China; 9Department of Respiratory Medicine, The Third Central Hospital of Tianjin, Tianjin, People’s Republic of China; 10Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The Affiliated Hospital of Jiangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, Jiangxi, People’s Republic of China; 11Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The First People’s Hospital of Fuzhou, Jiangxi, People’s Republic of China; 12Cancer Center, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital (Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College), Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 13Department of Cardiology, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, People’s Republic of China; 14Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Regeneration Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; 15Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The Affiliated Changsha Hospital of Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, People’s Republic of China; 16Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, the First Affiliated Hospital of Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Zhiguo Zhou, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The Affiliated Changsha Hospital of Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected] Ming Lu, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected]: C. psittaci pneumonia has atypical clinical manifestations and is often ignored by clinicians. This study analyzed the clinical characteristics, explored the risk factors for composite outcome and established a prediction model for early prediction of composite outcome among C. psittaci pneumonia patients.Methods: A multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study was conducted in ten Chinese tertiary hospitals. Patients diagnosed with C. psittaci pneumonia were included, and their clinical data were collected and analyzed. The composite outcome of C. psittaci pneumonia included death during hospitalization, ICU admission, and mechanical ventilation. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the significant variables. A ten-fold cross-validation was performed to internally validate the model. The model performance was evaluated using various methods, including receiver operating characteristics (ROC), C-index, sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive value (PPV/NPV), decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve analysis (CICA).Results: In total, 83 patients comprised training cohorts and 36 patients comprised validation cohorts. CURB-65 was used to establish predictive Model 1. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified three independent prognostic factors, including serum albumin, CURB-65, and white blood cells. These factors were employed to construct model 2. Model 2 had acceptable discrimination (AUC of 0.898 and 0.825 for the training and validation sets, respectively) and robust internal validity. The specificity, sensitivity, NPV, and PPV for predicting composite outcome in the nomogram model were 91.7%, 84.5%, 50.0%, and 98.4% in the training sets, and 100.0%, 64.7%, 14.2%, and 100.0% in the validation sets. DCA and CICA showed that the nomogram model was clinically practical.Conclusion: This study constructs a refined nomogram model for predicting the composite outcome in C. psittaci pneumonia patients. This nomogram model enables early and accurate C. psittaci pneumonia patients’ evaluation, which may improve clinical outcomes.Keywords: Chlamydia psittaci pneumonia, nomogram, prediction model, composite outcome

Keywords

• chlamydia psittaci pneumonia
• nomogram
• prediction model
• composite outcome