Spatiotemporal Analysis of Rainfall and Droughts in a Semiarid Basin of Brazil: Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics

Abstract

Precipitation estimation is a challenging task, especially in regions where its spatial distribution is irregular and highly variable. This study evaluated the spatial distribution of annual rainfall in a semiarid Brazilian basin under different regimes and its impact on land use and land cover dynamics. Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) records and observed data from 40 weather stations over a time series of 55 years were used, in addition to the Standardized Precipitation Index. Spatiotemporal analysis was carried out based on geostatistics. Remote sensing images were also interpreted for different rainfall regimes using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index. The Gaussian semivariogram model best represented the rainfall spatial structure, showing strong spatial dependence. Results indicated that rainfall amount in the basin significantly increases with elevation, as expected. There is high variation in the dynamics of water storage that can threaten water security in the region. Our findings point out that the application of geostatistics for mapping both the annual precipitation and the Standardized Precipitation Index provides a powerful framework to support hydrological analysis, as well as land use and land cover management in semiarid regions.

Keywords

• spatial dependence
• temporal variability
• sequential Gaussian simulation
• kriging
• cokriging
• CHIRPS