Ecosystems are showing symptoms of resilience loss

Abstract

Ecosystems around the world are at risk of critical transitions due to increasing anthropogenic pressures and climate change. Yet it is unclear where the risks are higher or where in the world ecosystems are more vulnerable. Here I measure resilience of primary productivity proxies for marine and terrestrial ecosystems globally. Up to 29% of global terrestrial ecosystem, and 24% marine ones, show symptoms of resilience loss. These symptoms are shown in all biomes, but Arctic tundra and boreal forest are the most affected, as well as the Indian Ocean and Eastern Pacific. Although the results are likely an underestimation, they enable the identification of risk areas as well as the potential synchrony of some transitions, helping prioritize areas for management interventions and conservation.

Keywords

• ecosystems
• resilience
• early warnings
• complex systems