Buffer Sizing in Critical Chain Project Management by Brittle Risk Entropy

Abstract

In order to solve the problems such as project duration delay caused by unreasonable buffer zone setting, a critical chain buffer zone setting method is proposed based on fragility theory. Firstly, we propose that the construction process is brittle and the brittleness of the construction process was analyzed. Secondly, this paper introduces a risk-integrated impact rate to describe the uncertainty of the construction process and establishes a brittle risk entropy function. Then, it presents entropy models and modification models of project buffers and feeding buffers based on the original Root Square Error Method. Finally, an engineering project was selected as an example, and the simulation was carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation software Crystal Ball, and the resulting method was compared with three buffer zone calculation methods. The results show that the method can effectively reduce the construction period and is effective and practical when compared to the other three buffer calculation methods. The results of the study provide a new way of thinking about buffer settings based on existing critical chain project management methods.

Keywords

• brittle risk entropy
• rational buffer setting
• integrated risk impact rate
• critical chain project management