Risk Perception, Risk Preference, and Timing of Food Sales: New Insights into Farmers’ Negativity in China

Abstract

Chinese farmers, especially small ones, always sell their food at low prices during harvest season rather than storing it for a better price. Based on a theoretical framework of expected utility, this paper examines the mechanism by which risk perception affects farmers’ timing choices of food sales and the role played by risk preference, utilizing data from the 2019 China Family Database and the China Household Finance Survey of farmers in six provinces of the main wheat-producing regions. This study shows that farmers with a high risk perception are more likely to choose current sales compared with intertemporal sales. The channel and mechanism analysis finds that increased risk perception leads to risky returns from intertemporal sales lower than certain returns from current sales in utility comparisons. It is further found that risk preference has a substitution effect on risk perception in farmers’ intertemporal food sales.

Keywords

• food price risk
• risk perception
• risk preference
• farmers’ food sales