DETUROPE (Jun 2014)
Predviđanje razvoja povrtarstva u Republici Srpskoj (Forecasting of Vegetable Production in Republic of Srpska)
Abstract
The research object in my work is bassed on forecasting the production parameters about significant types of vegetables in Republic of Srpska regarding to the surface, yield and total production of the following vegetables: beans, cucumber and cabbage and kale.The basis to estimate adequate models with whom have been derived the prediction are the informations (data) of production parameters,mentioned types of vegetables from 1996-2011 year. On the basis of estimated model is derived predicting the values of the parameters observed in 2016. year. The prediction is based on modern quantitative methods, specifically applied the method of time series analysis , and used the appropriate ARIMA models.The form choice of the model is the result of qualitative analysis and statistical criteria. Prediction of the surface shows that there will be changes in the structure of the observed planting vegetables in the Republic of Srpska in 2016. year. The bean surface will be reduced by approximately 600 ha,while the cucumbers ,cabbage and kale surface will be increased for those values. Yields of cucumbers, cabbage and kale in the forecasting period is characterized by stability, as minor fluctuations indicate yields of beans. Tendencies that characterize the area and yield the observed culture is directly reflected in their production. Anticipated production of beans 2016th. The lower will be approximately 500 tons as compared to the 2011th year , a consequence primarily of reducing the area under beans. Stable production during the forecasting period will have cabbage and kale. Anticipated production will be higher for cucumbers for about 1,300 tons at the end of the forecasting period . Results predictions can serve as a basis for qualitative analysis of the production and development of vegetable growing in the Republic of Srpska, as well as for policy and strategy development of vegetable growing in the future and design of agricultural policy measures to encourage the development of production, consumption, processing and export of the observed types of vegetables.
