Hydrological Modeling of Tributaries of Cantareira System, Southeast Brazil, with the Swat Model

Abstract

ABSTRACT The lack of hydrological data in Brazil is the main limitation for structuring hydrological models, which are able to assist water resources management. Therefore, studies are needed to evaluate the performance of models without on-site calibration. Within this context, the aim of this study was to calibrate the SWAT hydrological model for the Camanducaia River Basin and to evaluate the performance of this calibration in a contiguous drainage basin, one of the Jaguarí River. For the calibration and validation steps, the SWAT-CUP program was utilized. Uncertainty analysis and calculation of efficiency indexes were carried out through the SUFI-2 algorithm. The SWAT adjustment in the Camanducaia River Basin obtained adequate results, with a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient higher than 0.80 in the monthly time step and of 0.64 for the daily time step. With the parametrical transfer of this model to the Jaguarí River Basin, simulations were classified as very good in the monthly time step and acceptable for the daily time step. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the parametric transfer is a promising technique to model ungauged catchments, and can contribute towards water resources management in the river basins of the Mantiqueira Range region, as well as in other regions with shortage of hydrological monitoring.

Keywords

• calibration
• model transfer
• uncertainty analysis
• water security