Observed trends in daily extreme precipitation indices in Aguascalientes, Mexico

Abstract

Abstract Precipitation and its distribution greatly influence the evolution of ecosystems and the development of society. The objective was to analyse trends in extreme precipitation indices at 25 weather stations of Aguascalientes State. Eleven extreme precipitation indices were obtained. The time series of these indices were analysed with the non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test. The number of days above 50 mm, consecutive wet days, and extremely wet days did not have significant trends at any of the weather stations. Each of the indices maximum 1 day precipitation amount, maximum 5 day precipitation amount and number of very heavy precipitation days showed a significant positive trend at 12% of the weather stations; both the number of heavy precipitation days and the number of very wet days had significant positive trends at 8% of the weather stations; the simple daily intensity index, consecutive dry days and annual total wet‐day precipitation showed significant positive trends at 20%, 36% and 4% of weather stations, respectively. The intensity index was the only one that showed a significant negative trend, which happened at 4% of the weather stations. In a small part of Aguascalientes, the precipitation intensity, the number of rainy days and the accumulated total increased in short periods. Also, in a reduced region, daily precipitation intensity decreased; and in another very small area the number of dry days increased. For mitigating the effects of these phenomena, it is suggested that water be used more efficiently for sustained agricultural production systems and ecosystem management. The results of the present study will be of great importance in future economic planning in the Aguascalientes State.

Keywords

• climate change
• climate variability
• extreme indices
• global warming
• Mann–Kendall
• non‐parametric