Premature death of female breast cancer patients and its trend in Putuo District of Shanghai from 2004 to 2019

Abstract

ObjectiveTo understand the incidence and death of female breast cancer patients and the premature death caused by breast cancer in Putuo District of Shanghai, and to reduce the incidence of breast cancer, mortality and the probability of early death, and to provide reference for realizing the control target of the probability of early death of major chronic diseases.MethodsThe incidence and death data of the registered female residents with breast cancer in Putuo District of Shanghai from 2004 to 2019 were collected using Shanghai Population-based tumor registration management system. The crude incidence rate, standardized incidence rate, crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, age-specific incidence rate, age-specific mortality rate and other indicators were calculated. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of breast cancer incidence, mortality and premature death probability, and to analyze the changing trend.ResultsFrom 2004 to 2019, the crude incidence of breast cancer in Putuo District of Shanghai increased from 75.76/105 to 95.77/105 (APC=2.26%, t=6.05, P<0.01), while the standardized incidence did not decrease significantly during 2004‒2008 (APC=-4.83%, t=-1.81, P=0.10) and showed an upward trend after 2008 (APC=1.67%, t=2.84, P=0.02). The crude mortality rate changed from 18.52 per 105 to 21.63 per 105 (APC= 1.51%, t=1.52, P=0.15), and the standardized mortality rate decreased from 9.91/105 to 7.44/105 (APC=-1.46%, t=-2.43, P=0.03). The incidence rate in the group of 30‒69 years increased from 98.39/105 to 111.75/105 (APC=1.14%, t=3.05, P=0.01), and the mortality rate increased from 16.13/105 to 19.30/105 (APC=0.48%, t=0.84, P=0.41). The incidence rate of patients aged ≥70 years varied from 165.68/105 to 139.53/105 (APC=1.54%, t=1.25, P=0.23), and the mortality rate changed from 85.08/105 to 56.64/105 (APC=-0.18%, t=-0.08, P=0.94). The probability of premature death from breast cancer decreased from 7.73‰ to 6.61‰ (APC=-1.56%, t=-2.30, P=0.04).ConclusionThe risk of female breast cancer morbidity and death can not be ignored, and the control pressure of premature death probability is still large. Attention should be paid to the age group of 30‒69 years old, and further measures should be taken to control the increase of incidence and to reduce mortality, so as to reduce the probability of premature death of female breast cancer, and promote the realization of the overall control goal of premature death probability.

Keywords

• breast cancer
• female
• incidence rate
• mortality rate
• probability of premature death
• tendency