An Algorithm of Management Decision-Making Regarding the Feasibility of Investing in Geological Studies of Forecasted Hydrocarbon Resources

Abstract

Currently, under the conditions of increasing depletion of hydrocarbon reserves in Russia, it is necessary to consider the resource potential of poorly-researched oil and gas objects as a factor for ensuring the sustainable development of the oil and gas complex, in the context of the concept formation of rational subsoil utilization and a circular economy. The methodology of this study is based on a clear sequence of geological and economic studies of poorly-researched oil and gas objects, including four stages, such as analysis of the raw material base, assessment of the raw material potential, determination of technological development parameters, and economic evaluation. The methods of the probabilistic estimation of oil resources of the forecasted objects with regard to geological risk are outlined. Software packages “EVA—Risk Analysis” and “EVA—Economic Evaluation of Oil and Gas Field Development Projects” were used for estimation. The result of the study is the determination of the geological and economic efficiency of the development of nine hydrocarbon objects with the determination of the order of their further geological exploration, and introduction into industrial development on the example of the poorly-researched region of the Timan-Pechora oil and gas province located in the Arctic zone.

Keywords

• hydrocarbon raw materials
• poorly-researched resources
• management decisions
• innovative program complexes
• geological and investment risks
• economic evaluation
• probabilistic estimation