Currency depreciation and output nexus: Evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

Currency depreciation as a channel of output management has been a hot and controversial topic in both developed and developing economies. In Pakistan’s case, relevant research would require study of annual data available for the period 1972 to 2010. The stationarity of variables under consideration at different orders require the application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The findings based on open economy IS-LM framework induce a negative effect of currency depreciation on output levels. This is consistent with the long-run estimates of the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model. The short-run estimates of error-correction model (ECM) may lead to significant increment in output levels because of the depreciation of Pakistan rupee. Government spending may cause to reduce the output in the short-run, as well as, in long-run which furnishes strong support to crowding out hypothesis. The terms of trade, positive in the short-run, are negatively related to output in the long-run. However, surprise money has been insignificant in both long-run and short-run ECM. The country would need a clear long-term policy regime that inspires trust of the international community and restores the exporters’ confidence.

Keywords

• exchange rate
• open-economy IS-LM model
• bounds-testing approach
• crowding out