Optimal Control Strategies of HFMD in Wenzhou, China

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the dynamics and optimal control strategies of a modified hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) model incorporating the EV-A71 vaccination in Wenzhou, China, analytically and numerically. We define the basic reproduction number R0 and show that it can be used to determine whether HFMD becomes extinct or not. Based on the monthly reported HFMD cases in Wenzhou for 76 months, we estimate the parameters in the dynamic model by using the method of minimum chi-square fitting, conduct the sensitivity analysis to investigate the influence of each uncertain parameter on R0 with the methods of Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficient, and find that the EV-A71 vaccination does not lead to the extinction of HFMD, but slightly reduces the incidence of HFMD. In order to control the spread of HFMD in Wenzhou, we need to increase the rate of EV-A71 vaccination, decrease the contact rates, and shorten the course of disease.