Energy Conversion and Management: X (May 2022)
Regional and temporal variations in the impacts of future climate change on Japanese electricity demand: Simultaneous interactions among multiple factors considered
Abstract
Assessing the impacts of future climate change on electricity demand is critical to managing electricity systems efficiently and identifying reliable adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. This study assessed the impacts of future climate change on electricity demand while considering simultaneous interactions among multiple factors and the expected diurnal and seasonal variations of meteorological conditions. The study targeted regions across the wide climate zones of Japan and the period from 2020 to 2080. Models were developed using multiple meteorological and human behavioral indicators to explain the hourly demand for electricity. Multivariate adaptive regression splines were used for model construction to capture the simultaneous interaction effects of multiple meteorological variables. Hourly future climate scenarios were then generated based on the daily scenarios that were developed with four global climate models for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 2.6. These scenarios were applied to the models of electricity demand to project future electricity demand at an hourly temporal resolution. The regional and temporal variations of the impacts of future climate change on electricity consumption were illustrated by examining the projected hourly electricity demand for ten regions in Japan. Nationwide total annual impacts on consumption were not large. Consumption was projected to increase by approximately 1.8% (0.3–3.0%) from 2020 to 2080 in Japan for RCP8.5. However, the increases of nationwide consumption during the hot seasons were significant, as much as 14.2% (10.7–18.0%). Less frequent but high-intensity spikes of demand were projected to increase in frequency and intensity during the summer as the years progressed from 2020 to 2080. The net impact was determined by the balance between the increase of electricity demand for cooling and the decrease of electricity demand for heating. The contrast between the increased demand for cooling and decreased demand for heating increased as the years progressed. In addition to the progressively larger magnitude of the impacts, climate change was predicted to gradually enlarge regions of greater consumption for electricity, the duration of the seasons of greater demand, and the hours per day when cooling was required. The impacts based on RCP8.5 could be reduced if the RCP2.6 scenario were followed.
