Acta Medica Leopoliensia (Dec 2018)
Dynamics, prognosis and tendencies in absolute expression of mortality among patients with the acute myocardial infarction [і.21] in Ukraine
Abstract
Aim of the study - scientific substantiation of the dynamics of the actual number of fatal cases among patients with acute myocardial infarction in the period of 2002-2015, predicting and identifying tendencies in its numerical expression for the period up to 2030 in Ukraine. Materials and Methods. It was conducted the epidemiological one-stage continuous study using the data of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine [3] and State Committee of Statistics of Ukraine [4], which were transformed into dynamic series. The analysis of the trend of actual mortality due to the AMI in the state of public health and prediction of its dynamics in absolute expression for the period up to 2030 done according to the regression model of prediction - the method of linear trend constructed using the package of Microsoft Office Еxcel (2016). In this case, retrospective, statistical, mathematical, abstract and graphic methods of research, as well as methods of copying, deductive awareness, structural-logical analysis, extrapolation including the principles of systemicity were used. Results and Discussion. It was established that the increase of lethality among patients with AMI (п=42371; р<0,001) as in the actual 2015 up to n=10063 cases (Аgr=+1430; Тgr=+16.6%; р<0,001), and in the predicted 2030 by=+3931 episode (Тgr=+45,6%) of the the total number of deaths (n=12568; p<0,05; R2=0,6989) among patients with the AMI (n=59463; p<0,0,05) in comparison with the data of base of 2002 (n=8633; р<0,001). The tendency to increase in prognostic years was also characteristic for patients with the AMI from the number: men - by +35.0% (Аgr=+1758; n=6774; p<0,05; R2=0,6415), and women - by +2177 cases (Тgr=+60,2%; n=5794; p<0,05; R2=0,7512); urban residents - by +12,9% (Аgr=+2147; n=9369; p<0,05; R2=0,5971) and rural residents - by +1814 episodes (Тgr=+39,1%; n=3225; p<0,005; R2=0,8458); persons of working age - by +154 (Тgr=+4,0%; n=1997; p<0,05; R2=0,2113) and pensioners - by +22,1% (Аgr=+3863; n=10653; p<0,05; R2=0,7937). Conclusion. The obtained results indicated a significant burden of state of public health in the probable growth in the actual (2002-2015) and predicted years (2030) of the general number of fatal cases due to the AMI among patients with this pathology [I.21] in Ukraine, in particular, place of residence and economic employment of the deceased. In fact, these data served as a basis for health care authorities at different levels of government in conducting an assessment of the effectiveness of preventive measures implemented by the practical medicine in the context of minimizing the occurrence / development of morbidity among the population with the AMI and allowed to work out the effective, preventive measures of public health care in order to realize the global tasks of the WHO Strategy "Health for all in the 21st century" and the strategic objectives of WHO of "The global plan of action for the prevention of non-infectious diseases and control over them for 2013-2020".
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