The effect of precipitation on the Cost-Effectiveness of Sloping land conversion Program: A case study of Shaanxi Province, China

Abstract

The precipitation has a significant promotion and restraint on vegetation restoration, affecting the cost-effectiveness of the Sloping Land Conversion Program directly. To explore the impact of precipitation on cost-effectiveness of the SLCP, this paper selected the panel data of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2015 and utilized Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. Moreover, using the dual panel threshold model to obtain precipitation threshold and analyzing the fiscal efficiency in the SLCP under different precipitation conditions. The amount of precipitation would influence cost-effectiveness of the SLCP, and the fiscal efficiency demonstrated characteristics of “high in the middle and low at both ends”. The region with precipitation between 415 mm and 817 mm had the highest fiscal efficiency of SLCP. The fiscal efficiency of the SLCP was low in area with precipitation <415 mm because precipitation limited the survival rate of seedlings and the accumulation of afforestation per unit area. Fiscal efficiency was lower in area with precipitation higher than 817 mm, closely related to the low sensitivity of vegetation growth to changes in precipitation and higher subsidies. Shaanxi Province should “adjust measures to local conditions” afforestation, set subsidy standards based on the cost-effectiveness of the SLCP, and improve the fiscal efficiency of SLCP.

Keywords

• SLCP
• Precipitation
• Fiscal Efficiency
• Cost-effectiveness
• Panel Threshold Model
• GIS