Water–Energy–Food Nexus in the Yellow River Basin of China under the Influence of Multiple Policies

Abstract

The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus constitutes a pivotal aspect of regional ecological protection and high-quality development. The exertion of multiple WEF-related policies would engender both synergies and trade-offs within the WEF nexus. However, a quantified framework that integrates the impact of multiple WEF-related policies with conventional WEF nexus assessments and simulations is currently lacking. This study quantified the WEF nexus in the Yellow River basin (YRB) of China under the influence of multiple policies, calculated the current and future WEF scores under different policy combination scenarios using the improved entropy weight method, the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the linear optimization method. The results revealed the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, WEF overall scores and subsystem scores were substantially increased with spatial heterogeneity. (2) Scenario analysis indicated that policy implementation would generally accelerate WEF score improvements in each city, yet embracing all policies simultaneously was not optimal for each city. (3) The spatial heterogeneity in policy impacts was also found in the YRB, with higher trade-offs in the upper reaches of cities, and higher synergies in the middle and lower reaches of cities. To attain high-quality development within the YRB, the related policies’ implementation should consider the regional disparities and enhance the optimization of resource allocation across the regions.

Keywords

• water–energy–food
• multi-policy impacts
• scenario analysis
• the Yellow River basin
• China