Application of Stochastic Analysis, Modeling and Simulation (SAMS) to Selected Hydrologic Data in the Middle East

Abstract

Water resources in the Middle East are very scarce and the management of these resources is a challenge. In this paper, the use of stochastic analysis, modeling, and simulation (SAMS) software package to selected hydrologic data in the Middle East (namely Jordan and Saudi Arabia) are explored. Modeling and simulation experiments were conducted to test the capabilities of SAMS to be used for stochastic modeling and simulation in the Middle East region. The hydrologic data used in this study consist of historic observed rainfall data of different lengths at various sites in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The models used in this study include: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models, multi-site contemporaneous autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models, and temporal disaggregation models. Results indicate that SAMS can be used as a tool for stochastic modeling and simulation of hydrologic data in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. It is important for managers and decision makers of water resources in these countries to be able to use sophisticated tools such as SAMS while deciding water management policies in these countries.

Keywords

• stochastic analysis
• modeling
• simulation
• hydrologic data