Work of prospective on the adaptation of the viticulture to climate change: Which series of events could support various adaptation strategies? / Travaux de prospective sur l'adaptation de la viticulture au changement climatique : quelles séries d'événements pourraient favoriser différentes stratégies d'adaptation?

Abstract

A multidisciplinary group of researchers and experts of public bodies working on the French wine sector met together to elaborate a foresight exercice with the construction of the plausible ways leading to four different adaptation strategies to climate change of the French wine sector to climate change. For the implementation of this work, the group, considered a single climatic scenario and - difined four strategies of adaptation incorporating both geographical mobility and of integration of technological changes, - used assumptions from three sources: assumptions from researchers of various disciplines in their own disciplinary field, pre-existing assumptions from former foresight works and assumptions defined according to the statements of actors of the sector on the impacts of climate change and on the possible methods of adaptation. All these assumptions were written in the form of simple sentences, giving one version and its contrary. The various assumptions were selected and then combined between them in order to create a blend within the disciplinary fields, without however inferring of orientation. The result of this work is the join-construction of four plausible ways each one leading to one of the four preselected strategies of adaptation: “conservative” strategy where the evolutions are limited, a “nomade” strategy where the relocalisation of the vineyards is the main vector of adaptation, an “innovating” strategy where the adaptation is the result of the systematic integration of innovations, and finally towards a “liberal” strategy largely opened to any kind of changes. These ways and strategies are not supposed to give a predictive image of the future. However while proposing possible or plausible futures, this work provides material which could be debated within the sector, without immediate challenges that could possibly bias the discussion From the expression of the challenges and consequences of the various ways and strategies in which they result, the actors of the French wine sector will be able to start a strategic reflection. The presentation will be focused on the description of the four ways leading to adaptation strategies and their elaboration. Methodology is specified in another article “Adaptation to the climate change: interest of a prospective approach”, same authors.