Consequences of the National Energy Strategy in the Mexican Energy System: Analyzing Strategic Indicators with an Optimization Energy Model

Abstract

This paper presents an approach to the assessment of the Mexican energy system’s evolution under the climate and energy objectives set by the National Climate Change Strategy using an energy optimization model. Some strategic indicators have been chosen to analyze the performance of three integration elements: sustainability, efficiency, and energy security. Two scenarios have been defined in the medium and long-term: the business as usual scenario, with no energy or climate targets, and the National Climate Change Strategy scenario, where clean energy technologies and CO2 emissions objectives are considered. The aim of this work is the analysis of some of those strategic indicators’ evolution using the EUROfusion Times Model. Results show that reaching the strategy targets leads to improvements in the integration elements in the medium and long term. Besides, meeting the CO2 emission limits is achievable in terms of technologies and resources availability but at a high cost, while clean technologies targets are met with no extra costs even in the business as usual scenario.

Keywords

• energy modelling
• sustainability indicators
• energy policy
• mitigation pathway