Modeling of development of regional systems of agriculture of Republic Mordovia

Abstract

This paper considers the development of regional systems of agriculture (on the example of the Republic of Mordovia) on the basis of the systemic approach. The original technique of modeling with use of the modernized method of structural and parametrical identification of simulation model is offered. The block diagram of model is represented, the inclusion into its structure of the corresponding components is substantiated: expenses of appliances and work, agroclimatic conditions, indicators of soil fertility, structure of the ground area and the use of processed lands. Coefficients of the importance of the separate parameters influencing criterion function of regional systems of agriculture are revealed. Areas with various economic efficiencies of arable grounds are shown and the factors determining these distinctions are opened. A model of mathematical simulation is developed, allowing to estimate the degree of influence of territorial structure of agriculture and socio-economic factors on the efficiency of regional systems of agriculture and to define various possible scenarios of their sustainable development on the basis of the chosen criterion of stability — of economic efficiency.

Keywords

• regional systems of agricultural industry
• modelling
• method
• scenario
• simulation model
• parametrical and structural identification