Bìznes Inform (Jun 2018)
The Quazi-Adaptive Forecasting of Innovation Activity of Ukrainian Enterprises
Abstract
With the help of the quazi-adaptive model of innovative activity of enterprises of Ukraine, the forecast estimations of the indicator of innovative activity of enterprises of Ukraine for 2019–2021 have been found and researched. The idea of the quazi-adaptive forecasting method consists in accounting the changes in the parameter mark in adaptive models. The behavior of the indicator of innovative activity of Ukrainian enterprises has a characteristic cyclicity that resembles a bucket or cezve in a cut. This figure is suggested to be called the «innovation bucket». The decrease of innovation activity of enterprises in the average by one percent is forecasted. The quazi-adaptive approach to forecasting of innovative activity of enterprises allows to take into consideration not only the adaptive features of behavior of a time series as a whole, but also features of the mark changes present in the model of parameters, interrelation of its components. This makes possible to explore the internal structure of the time series and is positive for practical use.
