A Model to Estimate the Laying Curve of White Leghorn Hens in the Last Three Years in the Province of Ciego de Avila, Cuba

Abstract

A number of 15 976 egg production records from three hen batches in Ciego de Avila (2016) were used. The laying curve was characterized in similar conditions to IIA (2013), Republic of Cuba. The estimation of the laying curves made of mean productions from three stages in a year was presented. Four mathematical models were applied for curve adjustment: McNally, Wood, quadratic logarithmic, and linear hyperbolic. Different statistical criteria were used for validation: determination coefficient (R2), (R2A), residual analysis, and others. The means, standard deviation (SD), standard error (SE), and variation coefficient (VC) were made for each period. Egg production accounted for 84.35 and 60.61% of total laying, the best year was 2016. The highest values of SE and VC were observed at the end of production, as expected. Adjustment and discrimination showed a high adjustment criterion in the four models, but the best values were observed with McNally (1971), in R2 (99.60%), and adjusted R2 (99.42%). McNally reached the highest adjustment values: YM=-2233.62-18583.8*(MONTH/426)-029.0*(MONTH/426**2+780.241*log (426/MONTH)-68.1269*(log(426/MONTH))*2, and it described the best production of White Leghorn (L33) hens in Ciego de Avila.

Keywords

• aviculture
• laying curves
• models
• prediction