Bayesian Inference and Condition Assessment Based on the Deflection of Aging Reinforced Concrete Hollow Slab Bridges

Abstract

This paper presents a Bayesian inference framework for updating the structural rigidity ratio of aging hollow slab RC bridges using deflection measurements. The framework models the structural rigidity ratio as a stochastic field along the hollow RC slabs, using the Karhunen–Loeve (KL) transform to capture spatial correlation and variation. Bayesian inference is then applied using deflection data from static loading tests, supported by a finite element model (FEM) and a Kriging surrogate model to enhance computational efficiency. The posterior distribution of the structural rigidity ratio is derived using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. The proposed method was tested on an RC bridge with hollow slabs, using deflection measurements taken before and after reinforcement. The Bayesian updates indicated increased structural rigidity ratios after reinforcement, validating the effectiveness of the reinforcement. The deflection predictions from the updated models closely matched the measurements, with the 95% confidence bounds encompassing most of the data. This demonstrates the method’s validity and robustness in capturing the structural improvements post-reinforcement.

Keywords

• reinforced concrete bridges
• hollow slab
• Bayesian inference
• deflection
• kriging surrogate