Distribution pattern and change prediction of Saposhnikovia divaricata suitable area in China under climate change

Abstract

Saposhnikovia divaricata is an important economic medicinal plant in eastern Asia. It is the National Grade III Key Protected Wild Medicinal Plants in China. However, little is known about the effects of projected climate change on its adaptability and future distribution. In this study, we simulated the suitable area of S. divaricata under current (1970–2000) and four climate change scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) in 2050s (2041–2060), 2070s (2061–2080) and 2090s (2081–2100) using maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The results demonstrated that temperature seasonality (Bio04), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), elevation (Ele), and isothermally (Bio03) were the most important environmental variables determining the distribution of S. divaricata. Under the current climate situation, the suitable areas were mainly located in Northeast China and North China, with a total area of 134.87 × 104km2. The grassland is the largest land use type in the suitable area of S. divaricata. The priority planting region of S. divaricata are located in the southwest of Heilongjiang and the northwest of Jilin Province. The wild tending region is located in the middle east of Inner Mongolia. Under the future climate scenarios, the suitable areas of S. divaricata showed increasing trends. SSP5-8.5 scenario would have the highest area growth, with 43.09 %, 61.15 %, and 62.11 % increase in the three periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s). In addition, the high latitude migration of the geometric center of the total suitable area is predicted. Our results could provide a reference for the conservation and sustainable development and utilization of this species in the future.

Keywords

• Saposhnikovia divaricata
• Climate change
• MaxEnt model
• Environmental variables
• Suitable area