A Nomogram to Predict Adequate Lymph Node Recovery before Resection of Colorectal Cancer.

Abstract

Increased lymph node count (LNC) has been associated with prolonged survival in colorectal cancer (CRC), but the underlying mechanisms are still poorly understood. The study aims to identify new predictors and develop a preoperative nomogram for predicting the probability of adequate LNC (≥ 12). 501 eligible patients were retrospectively selected to identify clinical-pathological factors associated with LNC ≥ 12 through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The nomogram was built according to multivariate analyses of preoperative factors. Model performance was assessed with concordance index (c-index) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), followed by internal validation and calibration using 1000-resample bootstrapping. Clinical validity of the nomogram and LNC impact on stage migration were also evaluated. Multivariate analyses showed patient age, CA19-9, circulating lymphocytes, neutrophils, platelets, tumor diameter, histology and deposit significantly correlated with LNC (P < 0.05). The effects were marginal for CEA, anemia and CRC location (0.05 < P < 0.1). The multivariate analyses of preoperative factors suggested decreased age, CEA, CA19-9, neutrophils, proximal location, and increased platelets and diameter were significantly associated with increased probability of LNC ≥ 12 (P < 0.05). The nomogram achieved c-indexes of 0.75 and 0.73 before and after correction for overfitting. The AUC was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.79) and the clinically valid threshold probabilities were between 10% and 60% for the nomogram to predict LNC < 12. Additionally, increased probability of adequate LNC before surgery was associated with increased LNC and negative lymph nodes rather than increased positive lymph nodes, lymph node ratio, pN stages or AJCC stages. Collectively, the results indicate the LNC is multifactorial and irrelevant to stage migration. The significant correlations with preoperative circulating markers may provide new explanations for LNC-related survival advantage which is reflected by the implication of regional and systemic antitumor immune responses.