Mathematical analysis for COVID-19 resurgence in the contaminated environment

Abstract

A mathematical model is proposed that incorporates the key routes of COVID-19 resurgence: human-to-human transmission and indirect transmission by inhaling infectious aerosols or contacting public facilities with the virus. The threshold condition for the disease invasion is established, and the relationships among the basic reproduction number, peak value and final size are formulated. The model is validated by matching the model with the data on cases of COVID-19 resurgence in April of 2020 from Heilongjiang province in China, which indicates that the predictive values from the mathematical model fit the real data very well. Based upon the computations from the model and analytical formulae, we reveal how the indirect transmission from environmental pathogens contribute to the disease outbreak and how the input of asymptomatic individuals affect the disease spread. These findings highlight the importance of mass detection and environmental disinfection in the control of COVID resurgence.

Keywords

• indirect transmission
• peak value
• final size
• detection intensity
• disinfection