Coastal ecosystem services and climate change: Case study for integrated modeling and valuation

Abstract

Since the publication of global studies about ecosystem health and their importance to society, understanding and valuing ecosystem services (ES) has been gaining attention. Measuring undesired drivers that impact these services is crucial for planning sound socio-economic policies. This work explores how the coastal ES from Ubatuba, Brazil might behave following climate and tourists’ management scenarios. A new model, embracing ecological functions and their interactions with the city was built and through benefit transfer methods, the value of ten ecosystem services was calculated. Results show that all ES will be affected by the climate scenarios and by tourism reduction. The conclusion is that the region can provide these 10 ES with an economic value of 622 M dollars (± 3.6 M dollars) from 2010 to 2100. When climate change is considered, the values most likely decline from −1.23% (±2.96%) or −7.5 M dollars (±3.8 M dollars) to −2.34% (±3.88%) or −14 M dollars (± 6.3 M dollars) depending on the scenario. Results also show the possibility of an increase in the aggregate ES values due to the climate scenario effect, but it is less likely to occur. Controlling the population visiting the area is the main policy advice from this research which can lead to positive effects on the ES provision in all scenarios.

Keywords

• Social–ecological systems
• Ecosystem services valuation
• MIMES (Multiscale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services)
• Climate change scenarios
• Brazil