Analyzing the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic growth in Algeria: an empirical study

Abstract

This study examines the effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth in Algeria from 1973 to 2023. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Zivot-Andrews (ZA) structural break test for unit roots, the results confirm a long-run relationship between the variables. A 1% increase in oil prices is associated with a significant 1.05% rise in economic growth. However, the model also reveals a delayed negative impact from lagged oil price changes, indicating that price volatility can lead to economic instability. These findings underscore the critical importance of oil price stability for sustainable economic development in Algeria.

Keywords

• oil prices
• economic growth
• zivot-andrews test
• ardl cointegration
• algeria