DEVELOPMENT OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES FOR IDENTIFICATION OF "RISK AREAS" IN CASE OF EXTERNAL THREATS REALIZATION AS REGARDS SANITARY AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL WELLFARE

Abstract

Objective of the study was to develop the methodology for identification of administratively independent areas under potential risk of “external” epidemiological threat realization, by the example of cholera.Materials and methods. Analysis was conducted using free software package with open source code (QGIS 2.8 and GRASS GIS 7.0) on the basis of the data received from Rosgranitsa and the Federal State Statistics Service. The construction of risk cartogram was performed on the base of Euclidean distance and estimation of nuclear density.Results and conclusions. In accordance with the obtained results, the GIS containing information about the checkpoints on the Russian border, settlements, roads and railway lines was worked out. The method of identification of risk areas due to importation of infectious diseases based on the cholera model has been developed, and the total area of such territories was less than 1 % of the total area of the country. It was found that in some cases the risk area is located at a certain distance from the checkpoint, but the existence of checkpoint does not lead to the formation of risk areas. The developed GIS is available on the geo-information portal of FGHI Rostov-on-Don Research Anti-Plague Institute of Rospotrebnadzor.

Keywords

• external threats to sanitary-epidemiological welfare
• epidemiological risk
• cholera
• geographic information system