Analysis of the effectiveness of face-coverings on the death ratio of COVID-19 using machine learning

Abstract

Abstract The recent outbreak of the COVID-19 led to death of millions of people worldwide. To stave off the spread of the virus, the authorities in the US employed different strategies, including the mask mandate order issued by the states’ governors. In the current work, we defined a parameter called average death ratio as the monthly average of the number of daily deaths to the monthly average number of daily cases. We utilized survey data to quantify people’s abidance by the mask mandate order. Additionally, we implicitly addressed the extent to which people abide by the mask mandate order, which may depend on some parameters such as population, income, and education level. Using different machine learning classification algorithms, we investigated how the decrease or increase in death ratio for the counties in the US West Coast correlates with the input parameters. The results showed that for the majority of counties, the mask mandate order decreased the death ratio, reflecting the effectiveness of such a preventive measure on the West Coast. Additionally, the changes in the death ratio demonstrated a noticeable correlation with the socio-economic condition of each county. Moreover, the results showed a promising classification accuracy score as high as 90%.