Research on short-term load forecasting of new-type power system based on GCN-LSTM considering multiple influencing factors

Abstract

With the construction of new-type power system under the ”double carbon” target and the increasing diversification of the energy demand of the user side, the short-term load forecasting of power system is facing new challenges. In order to fully exploit the massive information contained in big data, this paper proposed a new short-term load forecasting method for new-type power system considering multiple factors, which based on Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM). Spearman rank correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between load and meteorological factors, and a quantitative model including meteorological factors, date factors and regional factors was established. Thus, GCN and LSTM were jointly used to extract the spatial and temporal characteristics of massive data respectively, and finally the short-term power load forecasting was achieved. The public data sets were used for performance verification compared with three comparison models, LSTM, CNN-LSTM and TCN-LSTM. The results show that the proposed method can make full use of the influence of multi-dimensional data, meanwhile improve the load prediction accuracy and training efficiency effectively.

Keywords

• New-type power system
• Short-term load forecasting
• Graph Convolutional Network
• Long short-term memory
• Correlation analysis
• Feature recognition