A Review of Building Carbon Emission Accounting and Prediction Models

Abstract

As an industry that consumes a quarter of social energy and emits a third of greenhouse gases, the construction industry has an important responsibility to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Based on Web of Science, Science-Direct, and CNKI, the accounting and prediction models of carbon emissions from buildings are reviewed. The carbon emission factor method, mass balance method, and actual measurement method are analyzed. The top-down and bottom-up carbon emission accounting models and their subdivision models are introduced and analyzed. Individual building carbon emission assessments generally adopt a bottom-up physical model, while urban carbon emission assessments generally adopt a top-down economic input-output model. Most of the current studies on building carbon emission prediction models follow the path of “exploring influencing factors then putting forward prediction models based on influencing factors”. The studies on driving factors of carbon emission mainly use the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model, the grey correlation degree model, and other models. The prediction model is realized by the regression model, the system dynamics model, and other mathematical models, as well as the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model, and other machine learning models. At present, the research on carbon emission models of individual buildings mainly focuses on the prediction of operational energy consumption, and the research models for the other stages should become a focus in future research.

Keywords

• prediction models
• process-based method
• economic input-output method
• hybrid method