Food Export Stability, Political Ties, and Land Resources

Abstract

As a vital guarantee of food security for many countries, international food trade has been threatened by volatile international political ties in recent years. However, the existing literature lacks empirical evidence on the relationship between political ties and food export stability. Therefore, this article examines the impact of political ties on food export stability using United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting data and export data on food products from 2010 to 2018. The chosen timeframe ensures the exclusion of potential influences from both the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, enhancing the robustness of the findings. The test results show that the deterioration of political ties can reduce food export stability: the higher the voting dissimilarity of the trading partners in the UNGA, the less stable food exports. Mechanism analysis suggests that political ties can impede food export stability by increasing tariff and non-tariff barriers. The analysis of heterogeneity indicates that the advancement of urbanization in importing countries intensifies the adverse effects of political ties on food export stability. However, this negative impact is less pronounced when importing countries have more allocation and higher productivity regarding land resources such as cultivated land and forests. This article adds to the literature on the relationship between political ties, trade, land resource optimization, and food security. The findings of this study highlight the importance of land resources with respect to reducing the risk of food trade instability in the context of volatile international politics.

Keywords

• international politics
• instability risk
• food security
• cultivated land
• forest