The prognostic factors and nomogram for patients with high-grade gliomas

Abstract

The evaluation on prognosis of glioma patients is critical for the individualized treatment. Despite of the widely used mRNA expression level and methylation status of prognostic genes in predicting the patients’ prognosis, the clinical application of high-throughput sequencing technology is still limited. Thus, this study aimed to construct a visual and reliable nomogram based on the common clinicopathological parameters for predicting the prognosis of patients diagnosed with high grade glioma (HGG). Notably, age, histopathology, IDH status, 1p/19q status, radiotherapy status, chemotherapy status, and tumor recurrence were identified as seven independent prognostic factors for HGG patients. A comprehensive nomogram based on the seven identified factors was subsequently constructed with the remarkable C-index of 0.732. Calibrations for nomogram showed great consistency between the predictive values and the actual values in 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates. Besides, the areas under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of patients had the values of 0.796 (95% CI: 0.759-0.833), 0.809 (95% CI: 0.770-0.848), and 0.820 (95% CI: 0.771-0.869), respectively. Furthermore, an external cohort (n=89) was used to validate the nomogram. In conclusion, age, histopathology, IDH status, 1p/19q status, radiotherapy status, chemotherapy status, and tumor progression were identified as independent prognostic factors, on which a visual predictive model was constructed with powerful predictive value.

Keywords

• Nomogram
• High grade glioma
• Prognosis
• Overall survival