Analysis of pandemic with game methodology and numerical approximation

Abstract

We build a mathematical game model of pandemic transmission, including vaccinations of population and budget costs of different acting to eliminate pandemic. We assume the interactions among different groups: vaccinated, susceptible, exposed, infectious, super-spreaders, hospitalized and fatality, defining a system of ordinary differential equations, which describes compartment model of disease and costs of the treatment. The goal of the game is to describe the development disease under different types of treatment, but including costs of them and social restrictions, during the shortest time period. To this effect we construct a dual dynamic programming method to describe open-loop Nash equilibrium for treatment, a group of people having antibodies and budget costs. Next, we calculate numerically an approximate open-loop Nash equilibrium.

Keywords

• covid-19
• game model of pandemic
• pproximate dual dynamic programming
• sufficient approximate optimality conditions for nash equilibrium
• numerical algorithm