Dynamical Malaria Forecasts Are Skillful at Regional and Local Scales in Uganda up to 4 Months Ahead

Abstract

Malaria forecasts from dynamical systems have never been attempted at the health district or local clinic catchment scale, and so their usefulness for public health preparedness and response at the local level is fundamentally unknown. A pilot preoperational forecasting system is introduced in which the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system and seasonal climate forecasts of temperature and rainfall are used to drive the uncalibrated dynamical malaria model VECTRI to predict anomalies in transmission intensity 4 months ahead. It is demonstrated that the system has statistically significant skill at a number of sentinel sites in Uganda with high‐quality data. Skill is also found at approximately 50% of the Ugandan health districts despite inherent uncertainties of unconfirmed health reports. A cost‐loss economic analysis at three example sentinel sites indicates that the forecast system can have a positive economic benefit across a broad range of intermediate cost‐loss ratios and frequency of transmission anomalies. We argue that such an analysis is a necessary first step in the attempt to translate climate‐driven malaria information to policy‐relevant decisions.

Keywords

• health
• early warning system
• Africa
• seasonal forecast