Meteorological factors and risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2015.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:The epidemic tendency of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is on the rise in recent years in Guangzhou. This study aimed to explore the associations between meteorological factors and HFRS epidemic risk in Guangzhou for the period from 2006-2015. METHODS:We obtained data of HFRS cases in Guangzhou from the National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS) during the period of 2006-2015. Meteorological data were obtained from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to explore the relationship between meteorological variables and HFRS. RESULTS:The annual average incidence was 0.92 per 100000, with the annual incidence ranging from 0.64/100000 in 2009 to 1.05/100000 in 2012. The monthly number of HFRS cases decreased by 5.543% (95%CI -5.564% to -5.523%) each time the temperature was increased by 1°C and the number of cases decreased by 0.075% (95%CI -0.076% to -0.074%) each time the aggregate rainfall was increased by 1 mm. We found that average temperature with a one-month lag was significantly associated with HFRS transmission. CONCLUSIONS:Meteorological factors had significant association with occurrence of HFRS in Guangzhou, Southern China. This study provides preliminary information for further studies on epidemiological prediction of HFRS and for developing an early warning system.