The Lion in Spring? Three Takes on Syria through the Presidential Lens

Abstract

Alan George, Syria: Neither Bread Nor Freedom. London and New York: Zed Books, 2003; Flynt Leverett, Inheriting Syria: Bashar’s Trial by Fire. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 2005; David Lesch, The New Lion of Damascus: Bashar al-Asad and Modern Syria. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2005. Since Hafez al-Asad’s death in June 2000, Syria has spent more time in the international spotlight than perhaps ever before, due primarily to the Bush administration’s interest in the country’s relations with four of its neighbors: Iran, Iraq, Israel, and Lebanon. This interest has spurred the publication of several “contemporary issues” books analyzing the country’s political situation and aimed at English-speaking policymaking, analyst, diplomatic, and journalistic communities in the United States and elsewhere. Three of the most talked-about analyses are Alan George’s Syria: Neither Bread Nor Freedom, Flynt Leverett’s Inheriting Syria: Bashar’s Trial by Fire, and David Lesch’s The New Lion of Damascus: Bashar al-Asad and Modern Syria. These three books have become well-known “recommended reads” for policymakers working on Syria and have circulated around the European and American diplomatic, non-governmental organization (NGO), and business circles in Damascus. Like most of the books published on Syria since the 1970s, these three focus on the president, and for good reason: the intense presidential personality cult that characterized Syria under Hafez al-Asad (reigned 1971-2000) has continued into his son Bashar’s presidency, albeit in a softened form (fewer photos in public places and less frenzied “great leader” rhetoric). Those looking to explain current Syrian policies and to forecast future developments do so by concentrating their analyses on the president – in this case, the son of the legendary and much-scrutinized Hafez. The transition from a regime led by a man about whom decades of information and analysis had been collected to one led by his relatively unknown son has produced a sense of uncertainty and lack of knowledge among American policymakers, foreign service officials, and journalists. For many seeking to understand Syria’s present and likely future, the primary questions to answer are: Who is Bashar and what has influenced his development as a political leader? What are his objectives as regards ideological, domestic, and foreign relations concerns? How strong is he vis-à-vis other regime officials, and what capacity does he have to make his objectives prevail? ...