Oceanologia (Dec 2005)
Ecohydrodynamic model of the Baltic Sea. Part 2. Validation of the model
Abstract
The ecohydrodynamic model for the Baltic Sea consists of two interacting parts: one describes the hydrodynamics of the water (3HD), the other organic matter production and destruction (ProDeMo). The results of the simulation were validated. The modelled processes were compared with direct observations, which demonstrated the recurrence of cycles, from the spring diatom blooms through the summer depletion of nutrient salts and algal blooms, to autumn blooms of diatoms and the subsequent destruction of organic matter, and intensified mineralisation of detritus in winter. Calibration yielded a set of coefficients complementing the algorithm of equations describing the production and destruction of organic matter in the coastal zone. Verification of the model has demonstrated that in multi-year simulations it is stable and also that it follows the laws of conservation of mass and energy. The third procedural stage of the model investigation was validation, in which statistical measures in the form of bias, correlation coefficients and effectiveness between simulations and observations not used in calibration describe the quality of ecohydrodynamic modelling in southern Baltic Sea waters.
